Chances Are . . .: Adventures In Probability (without dust jacket)

The Story

A layman's journey into the realm of probability. We search for certainty, but find only likelihood. All things are possible, only one thing actually happens; everything else is in the realm of probability. The twin disciplines of probability and statistics underpin every modern science and sketch the shape of all purposeful group activity--politics, economics, medicine, law, sports--giving humans a handle on the essential uncertainty of their existence. Yet while we are all aware of the hard facts, most of us still refuse to take account of probability--preferring to drive, not fly; buying into market blips; smoking cigarettes; denying we will ever age. There are some people, though--gamblers, risk buyers, forensic experts, doctors, strategists--who find probability's mass of incomplete uncertainties delightful and revelatory. This book is their story.--From publisher description.